Brexit

[Dan_FR]

At the end of the day we, the public, have done our part and voted in the referendum. The rest of it is now up to the politicians (as much as that pains me to say). Arguing over biased and manipulated figures/reporting achieves nothing - and yes of course the figures are manipulated and interpreted in a way that aids the view point of whoever is reporting them

The best any of us can do now is embrace and support the future this country has voted for

[Johnsy]

It all shows how restrictive the EU is when you look how hard they make it to leave.
After article 50, The UK will be trading under WTO rules until new deals with the EU are made which could be 10 years, as they start fresh, sigh.
The UK, if they are going to article 50, should seek out the free trade deal with India that they sought but were blocked by EU after 9 years!
Then we can all drive Jag/Landrover from TATA more cheaply than VAG.  Just need Jag to make a hot hatch, the ingenium engine designed AND built in the UK.  Iirc the ecoboost was designed in the UK too.

My understanding is, whoever is in charge when EU/government negotiations start will not invoke article 50 until they have negotiated said trade deals , negotiating from a potion of power so to speak.
If they invoke article 50,the clock is ticking and EU beaurocrats hold all of the cards .
As has previously been mentioned I think we import more goods than we export to/from Europe

[Craig Stanley]

It all shows how restrictive the EU is when you look how hard they make it to leave.
After article 50, The UK will be trading under WTO rules until new deals with the EU are made which could be 10 years, as they start fresh, sigh.
The UK, if they are going to article 50, should seek out the free trade deal with India that they sought but were blocked by EU after 9 years!
Then we can all drive Jag/Landrover from TATA more cheaply than VAG.  Just need Jag to make a hot hatch, the ingenium engine designed AND built in the UK.  Iirc the ecoboost was designed in the UK too.

My understanding is, whoever is in charge when EU/government negotiations start will not invoke article 50 until they have negotiated said trade deals , negotiating from a potion of power so to speak.
If they invoke article 50,the clock is ticking and EU beaurocrats hold all of the cards .
As has previously been mentioned I think we import more goods than we export to/from Europe

A Jag hot hatch. No ta:). Happy with my Golf thanks.

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[Scottymon]

It all shows how restrictive the EU is when you look how hard they make it to leave.
After article 50, The UK will be trading under WTO rules until new deals with the EU are made which could be 10 years, as they start fresh, sigh.
The UK, if they are going to article 50, should seek out the free trade deal with India that they sought but were blocked by EU after 9 years!
Then we can all drive Jag/Landrover from TATA more cheaply than VAG.  Just need Jag to make a hot hatch, the ingenium engine designed AND built in the UK.  Iirc the ecoboost was designed in the UK too.

My understanding is, whoever is in charge when EU/government negotiations start will not invoke article 50 until they have negotiated said trade deals , negotiating from a potion of power so to speak.
If they invoke article 50,the clock is ticking and EU beaurocrats hold all of the cards .
As has previously been mentioned I think we import more goods than we export to/from Europe

Wouldn't it be nice. But no, EU wont begin new Trade talks until we Article 50; their not going to allow us that freedom of choice.  The same as we won't get access to the free market if we don't allow free movement of people, the latter being why most BrExited in the first place.

EU talks often take FOREVER, so our best bet is to strike world trade deals that we sort previously and have been denied, along side EU discussions, hopefully they would take less time, but who knows.

I swear the EU and US want some sort of Pangeian World order to control us all.

[Craig Stanley]

At the end of the day we, the public, have done our part and voted in the referendum. The rest of it is now up to the politicians (as much as that pains me to say). Arguing over biased and manipulated figures/reporting achieves nothing - and yes of course the figures are manipulated and interpreted in a way that aids the view point of whoever is reporting them

The best any of us can do now is embrace and support the future this country has voted for

Second that.

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[Bard]

Absolutely - I voted in but now the referendum has given us an answer we need to move forward and make it work. As others in the thread have said I'm massively dismayed at the lies and half truths that having been presented as facts have unravelled extremely quickly.

I'm even more dismayed at the lineup for our next PM - my other half is a teacher and ran a large 6th form, as such I've heard many different views on the education system in this country what does/doesn't work about the current system and ideas for the future (from people that deal with it on a daily basis) I've yet to hear a single professional in the education sector actually agree with Gove's implementations or views. The possibility of him as PM scares me and I don't believe for one second that if he ran a contest for PM by democracy he would win (ok it's within the rules to change personnelle but I think the mandate would be demonstrably different to Cameron/Osborne's) , becoming PM by the backdoor in the same way as Gordon Brown is his only way to that office (IMO). Having said that May seems to want to abandon the goal of running a budget surplus, a horrific step away from the policies in place. All of that heartache and pain for those in need for nothing now? (as a point I believe trying to get back to a surplus is a good thing, difficult decisions being taken. And I'm willing to say that I've not really been affected by any of those changes so it's easier to have that viewpoint).

The EU was/is far from perfect and as the graphic showing net contributors/beneficiaries shows there's clearly a discrepancy between what we put in and got out, but less than Germany for example. I think it's quite a progressive thing to be helping those other countries develop. My concern is the larger issues at stake that affect the world, regardless of lines on a map. These include global warming the EU is able to implement and push measures that help us move toward a more sustainable world. China's GDP/Economic growth over the last decade has exploded and since slowed but at what cost to the environment in the long term? It's slowdown to me points toward that the growth wasn't sustainable and so could have happened with less cost to the planet. An organisation like the EU can help bring these things into focus. It's a similar argument as we have with the banks and bonuses - focus on short term gain over long term stability, in the long run that oversight and governance helps, not only with what happens but record keeping and analysis of what is going on so we can learn from the past.

I'm disappointed that the campaigns focused almost exclusively on Economics and Migration. Don't get me wrong, they are 2 huge issues facing this country (and many others). My largest worry though is cultural. We are to move away from the EU - our neighbours and cultural heavyweights in Europe will still be on our doorstep as we probably move to a closer purely capitalist society like the United States. Personally I like being European, having lived in Europe for several years in my early 20's I would rather we were closer culturally to these countries and further from the US. Working for a global US company I can see the benefits of the capitalist pursuit of the almighty dollar but at the macro level I'm not convinced it's the best thing for the population. The out campaign's slogans around the 350M for the NHS is all well and good, but that statement comes from those inside the government that are to the right wing of the tory party, it can easily be argued that those same people are working to privatise our healthcare and education already, clearly in conflict with their promises on the campaign trail. This conflict takes us towards a US model where healthcare is based on your ability to pay, your luck in finding work with a healthcare insurance plan or being treated in emergency and being stuck with costs you cannot bear.

Ooops rather long post there! I'll stop blabbering!

[Juliand]

Absolutely - I voted in but now the referendum has given us an answer we need to move forward and make it work. As others in the thread have said I'm massively dismayed at the lies and half truths that having been presented as facts have unravelled extremely quickly.

I'm even more dismayed at the lineup for our next PM - my other half is a teacher and ran a large 6th form, as such I've heard many different views on the education system in this country what does/doesn't work about the current system and ideas for the future (from people that deal with it on a daily basis) I've yet to hear a single professional in the education sector actually agree with Gove's implementations or views. The possibility of him as PM scares me and I don't believe for one second that if he ran a contest for PM by democracy he would win (ok it's within the rules to change personnelle but I think the mandate would be demonstrably different to Cameron/Osborne's) , becoming PM by the backdoor in the same way as Gordon Brown is his only way to that office (IMO). Having said that May seems to want to abandon the goal of running a budget surplus, a horrific step away from the policies in place. All of that heartache and pain for those in need for nothing now? (as a point I believe trying to get back to a surplus is a good thing, difficult decisions being taken. And I'm willing to say that I've not really been affected by any of those changes so it's easier to have that viewpoint).

The EU was/is far from perfect and as the graphic showing net contributors/beneficiaries shows there's clearly a discrepancy between what we put in and got out, but less than Germany for example. I think it's quite a progressive thing to be helping those other countries develop. My concern is the larger issues at stake that affect the world, regardless of lines on a map. These include global warming the EU is able to implement and push measures that help us move toward a more sustainable world. China's GDP/Economic growth over the last decade has exploded and since slowed but at what cost to the environment in the long term? It's slowdown to me points toward that the growth wasn't sustainable and so could have happened with less cost to the planet. An organisation like the EU can help bring these things into focus. It's a similar argument as we have with the banks and bonuses - focus on short term gain over long term stability, in the long run that oversight and governance helps, not only with what happens but record keeping and analysis of what is going on so we can learn from the past.

I'm disappointed that the campaigns focused almost exclusively on Economics and Migration. Don't get me wrong, they are 2 huge issues facing this country (and many others). My largest worry though is cultural. We are to move away from the EU - our neighbours and cultural heavyweights in Europe will still be on our doorstep as we probably move to a closer purely capitalist society like the United States. Personally I like being European, having lived in Europe for several years in my early 20's I would rather we were closer culturally to these countries and further from the US. Working for a global US company I can see the benefits of the capitalist pursuit of the almighty dollar but at the macro level I'm not convinced it's the best thing for the population. The out campaign's slogans around the 350M for the NHS is all well and good, but that statement comes from those inside the government that are to the right wing of the tory party, it can easily be argued that those same people are working to privatise our healthcare and education already, clearly in conflict with their promises on the campaign trail. This conflict takes us towards a US model where healthcare is based on your ability to pay, your luck in finding work with a healthcare insurance plan or being treated in emergency and being stuck with costs you cannot bear.

Ooops rather long post there! I'll stop blabbering!

Good post....The principles of the EU are generally soundly based - there might be some niggling issues, of course, but to 'throw the baby out with the bathwater' is a very expensive sledge hammer to crack a small peanut......IMO.

Where are all of the civil servants etc with the necessary skills and expertise to work through these complicated and lengthy trade deals???
The UK is ill-equipped to go it alone. A big worry...

[Scottymon]

The EU is getting more and more like the US; they control our Laws, control our freedom of trade, dictate who can come into our country, stifle our growth... and this is only going to get worse.
Regarding Health Care, have you read about TTIP?  That's the US and EU (behind closed doors) trying to get Privatization of our services including the NHS.

Make no mistake about it, the democratic deficit in the EU is rife.

[Bard]

Fair point on TTIP Scotty - that is certainly a worry with regards privatisation. I'm not wholly clued up on TTIP I admit. Aren't they also trying to reduce barriers for big business on things like pharm, food safety and banking regulations? All things I would want someone or a body (like the EU) to try and represent the consumer/publics interest. You're right to point out that it's secret negotiations between the EU and US and that is certainly scary as these are exactly the kind of 'bureaucratic red tape' measures (that the leave campaign said made British Businesses lives harder) that were put in place by the EU to improve standards and safeguards (you could argue). To me this probably points more toward the fact that the US has far too much say in the rest of the world and that the EU's position has probably weakened since inception... coming full circle almost to say that the EU isn't good enough at what is should be doing, which could well be a logical argument for leaving (if we'd voiced concerns, given 'red lines' and actually managed our membership), though as I write I'm acutely aware that the input level from societies into who governs at the EU level is a grave concern and potential reason for this, again good reasons to question the membership.

At this rate the conversation is going to go toward the level of corruption around the world and it's leaders, and to be more precise the level of detected corruption vs corruption that can be inferred from lobbying (as above) vs direct pay offs and the impact that has on the citizens of the world's nations. The TTIP just shows that holding public office should be purely in the public's interest. Though obviously you could then get into the circular argument that allowing business greater access and growth because of this helps GDP and actually helps the average citizen so therefore by acting in a way that harms consumer rights and protections is actually in their interest...

[Juliand]

I'm all for helping out fellow man and colour/ race/ religion doesn't really matter to me but you can't bankrupt yourself trying to save everyone when they don't always seem to be helping themselves.

Also if the people in control of the EU were focused on that rather than trying to tell everyone what they should do the world would be a better place.

At what point was our contribution to the EU bankrupting the UK?

Compare the UK's financial contribution to the EU in 2015 at £8.5 Billion net (after what we get back) against the loss to UK companies following the 'out' decision of over £120 Billion, and the biggest drop in Sterling in over 30 years? Which was the biggest impact on the UK's economy?  Clue: not the UK's payment to the EU.

What real examples do you have of the EU telling everyone what to do???

I didnt say the EU was bankrupting us, I said the idea of giving our money away to every country in need so we could all be equal would probably bankrupt us.

Real example? How about the fact that it took 8 YEARS to deport that maniac Abu Hamza, and he cost us £25million while he was here.

We had to wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait until eventually the judges in Strasbourg let us deport someone from our own country. And they were reluctant to do it.

This case fell under the provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights - Not the EU - the two are very different, which just shows how the EU can be blamed for anything with the word 'European' in it.

In or out of the EU, the UK remains a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights....

[dansmith180]

I'm all for helping out fellow man and colour/ race/ religion doesn't really matter to me but you can't bankrupt yourself trying to save everyone when they don't always seem to be helping themselves.

Also if the people in control of the EU were focused on that rather than trying to tell everyone what they should do the world would be a better place.

At what point was our contribution to the EU bankrupting the UK?

Compare the UK's financial contribution to the EU in 2015 at £8.5 Billion net (after what we get back) against the loss to UK companies following the 'out' decision of over £120 Billion, and the biggest drop in Sterling in over 30 years? Which was the biggest impact on the UK's economy?  Clue: not the UK's payment to the EU.

What real examples do you have of the EU telling everyone what to do???

I didnt say the EU was bankrupting us, I said the idea of giving our money away to every country in need so we could all be equal would probably bankrupt us.

Real example? How about the fact that it took 8 YEARS to deport that maniac Abu Hamza, and he cost us £25million while he was here.

We had to wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait until eventually the judges in Strasbourg let us deport someone from our own country. And they were reluctant to do it.

This case fell under the provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights - Not the EU - the two are very different, which just shows how the EU can be blamed for anything with the word 'European' in it.

In or out of the EU, the UK remains a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights....

Ahhhh, I did not know that. I was under the impression it was because of our affiliation with the EU that we had to go through all that BS. Yes it's very hard work sifting through all the sh*t to try and find out what's fact and fiction. I was very annoyed at both sides of the campaign for blatantly just lying and exaggerating to make a point.

The best way to do it would be to read a large page/ list/ booklet of FACTS, do a test on it to make sure you understood it and only if you got a passing grade should you be eligible to vote. That would be a dream world.

[Craig Stanley]

I'm all for helping out fellow man and colour/ race/ religion doesn't really matter to me but you can't bankrupt yourself trying to save everyone when they don't always seem to be helping themselves.

Also if the people in control of the EU were focused on that rather than trying to tell everyone what they should do the world would be a better place.

At what point was our contribution to the EU bankrupting the UK?

Compare the UK's financial contribution to the EU in 2015 at £8.5 Billion net (after what we get back) against the loss to UK companies following the 'out' decision of over £120 Billion, and the biggest drop in Sterling in over 30 years? Which was the biggest impact on the UK's economy?  Clue: not the UK's payment to the EU.

What real examples do you have of the EU telling everyone what to do???

I didnt say the EU was bankrupting us, I said the idea of giving our money away to every country in need so we could all be equal would probably bankrupt us.

Real example? How about the fact that it took 8 YEARS to deport that maniac Abu Hamza, and he cost us £25million while he was here.

We had to wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait until eventually the judges in Strasbourg let us deport someone from our own country. And they were reluctant to do it.

This case fell under the provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights - Not the EU - the two are very different, which just shows how the EU can be blamed for anything with the word 'European' in it.

In or out of the EU, the UK remains a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights....

Ahhhh, I did not know that. I was under the impression it was because of our affiliation with the EU that we had to go through all that BS. Yes it's very hard work sifting through all the sh*t to try and find out what's fact and fiction. I was very annoyed at both sides of the campaign for blatantly just lying and exaggerating to make a point.

The best way to do it would be to read a large page/ list/ booklet of FACTS, do a test on it to make sure you understood it and only if you got a passing grade should you be eligible to vote. That would be a dream world.

Not a bad idea really.

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[garrardrj]

Why does everyone think we are detaching from Europe ? We are detaching ourselves from the EU , we will still be in Europe and will be a European nation.
I do not think that we will actually leave the EU , the negotiations will start and ofher nations will be contemplating leaving too , most nations in the EU know that. I believe there will be a revamp of the EU , a rebranding or renaming or similar. If the EU are allows the UK out that will be the end of the EU and it is to many countries detriment. How the next two years or so develop will be intersting , but the first step is implementing article 50 , will it be done ?

[FJ1000]

Brexfast - A full English. Certainly not a "continental" (shudder)

Brexceit - A deceitful lie that unravels the morning after it's too late

Brexsade - A campaign for something followed by quitting at the crucial moment of taking it to completion

Brexcrete - What one does when they realise they're the turkey, and they just voted for christmas

Brexcuse - "What £350million? No that wasn't me that said that, it was them"

Brexecute - To "brexecute" an action, is to not do it and ask someone else to do it instead, after at least 3 months

Brexperts - Newly discovered economics and political experts, previously proficient only in scratching their own arses and moaning a lot.

Brexotic holiday - Bognor. In November.


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[FJ1000]

In other news - looks like May will be our new PM.

She's said she won't be calling an early election, and won't be invoking article 50 this year. Meanwhile the EU have re-stated no negotiations until article 50 is invoked. Yippee, more time in limbo, and an unelected leader for 4 years. Let's hope she gets forced to call the election.

The B of E has been getting busy trying to keep markets propped up; the £250bn pledge, and now talk about rate cuts already. Interest rate futures are pricing in a 25bps cut in the base rate in August, and rates might hit 0. For the first time ever, the yield on a gilt has gone negative (I think it was the 10 year). Looks like the US fed is going to hold off raising rates in the states for the time being too, to observe what happens in markets in reaction to BREXIT. There's also speculation that the EU will extend and broaden it's bond buying program to keep European credit markets happy.

Most analysis I've read, e.g. Goldman FX projections published early Friday, points to no imminent recovery in £/$.

I'm more worried about Europe though. There's an Italian banks crisis looming, elections in France and Germany. Is BREXIT going to be the catalyst for a crash in Europe? Let's hope not, we suffer too in that scenario.


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