There is an outside possibility that nothing at all happens about us leaving the EU.
- The referendum is not legally binding. There is form in Europe for not following through a referendum result...
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- Boris has himself in the past said a "no" referendum was the best way to go into EU negotiations, win some real concessions, and then put a revised deal to the UK as a second referendum. He did do a U-turn on this later though; "out is out". But he lies, so who knows what he's plotting. And he might not be in charge.
- There's talk about forcing the decision through a parliamentary vote, at which point it would be voted down. This maneuver is being called a "reverse maastricht." Sounds like a WWE move!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2016/jun/06/reverse-maastricht-legal-politically-feasible-eu-referendum-brexit- There's a chance of an early general election, sometime next year. The Lib Dems have said they will campaign on the basis of keeping the UK in the EU. Now, they're not going to win, but makes you wonder what labour will do, and what happens if they end up with a remainer leading labour and in coalition with Lib Dem.
Basically, all kinds of scenarios could play out!
All of this has got me wondering about picking up a small amount of UK banks or home builders shares. Barratt and RBS for example 30% lower on the month; fair if we do exit, but could look very cheap in a couple of years if it turns out we stay in. But then again, just the uncertainty if it continues for an extended period of time damages the profitability of these companies; a 5% fall in home sales and 5% off prices takes 33% off the profit of the average UK homebuilder!